Ceasefire Is Not Enough: Myanmar After the Earthquake
By Ma Thida, Burmese human rights activist, surgeon, writer, and former prisoner of conscience.
Following the massive earthquake, an unusual request for assistance from Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw) leadership prompted immediate responses from several Asian nations, followed by support from other parts of the world. However, while rescue teams from China, Russia, and Singapore have already commenced operations, teams from Taiwan, Japan, and Turkey remain awaiting approval. Many other countries have also extended offers of humanitarian aid with considerable caution.
This cautious approach stems from past experiences, particularly the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in 2008, when international aid was widely mismanaged and exploited by the previous military regime—one that, despite leadership changes, remains fundamentally the same. The concern persists that the Tatmadaw will leverage this disaster primarily to consolidate its power and legitimacy rather than prioritize relief efforts for the earthquake victims or the country's overall welfare. Further raising suspicions, the military regime has recently announced that it will not permit international media access to the affected areas.
Why, then, did the Tatmadaw leadership request international assistance? The answer lies in the extensive damage sustained by key military infrastructure in Naypyidaw. Reports indicate that the scale of destruction surpasses the Tatmadaw’s capacity for repair or reconstruction. Leaked information suggests that numerous Tatmadaw officers, soldiers, and their families—particularly those in the Mandalay region and within military and civil service communities in Naypyidaw—were killed. Moreover, nearly all military infrastructure in the capital has suffered severe damage, including the Tatmadaw’s independent internet server. As a result, the chain of command from Naypyidaw to other military bases across the country has been significantly disrupted. Given that the Tatmadaw was already losing nearly 90% of its battles against resistance forces, its leadership likely fears a complete military collapse in the wake of the earthquake. Consequently, securing international assistance—particularly from China, Russia, and select ASEAN nations—has become a strategic necessity to restore critical infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the National Unity Government NUG has declared a two-week ceasefire beginning March 30 to facilitate emergency rescue operations for the affected population. Additionally, it has expressed its willingness to extend relief efforts to Tatmadaw-controlled areas, provided that the military ensures the safety of rescue workers and refrains from making arrests.
Despite the earthquake’s devastation, airstrikes continued in at least five different parts of the country, including areas already affected by the disaster. Before the earthquake, Tatmadaw-controlled areas were heavily patrolled by police, soldiers, and armed civilian supporters stationed on nearly every corner and street. Now, amid the crisis, there is no sign of their presence in rescue operations.
With ongoing attacks in some areas, people affected by the earthquake do not dare to stay in their damaged homes. Many are forced to sleep on the roads, a situation also unfolding in Naypyidaw’s civil servant quarters. Yet, the Tatmadaw regime has not initiated any shelter programs in the affected areas. Furthermore, with many civil servant buildings severely damaged, the regime has issued an order instructing all surviving civil servants to vacate immediately. However, no arrangements or offers of refuge have been made for them, leaving them without shelter in the aftermath of the disaster.
The electricity shortage has become a dire challenge across all regions of Myanmar. Even in less affected areas like Yangon, power is available for only 2 to 4 hours per day. Phone connections have been severely disrupted, making it nearly impossible to place calls, even within the same city.
The shortage of water, especially drinking water, has reached life-threatening levels. Signs of soil liquefaction in affected areas raise concerns about further landslides and infrastructure damage. Additionally, with several dams sustaining damage during the earthquake, their potential collapse could lead to devastating floods in the affected regions.
A prophecy known as Dabaung foretells that Naypyidaw will one day be submerged, leading many to speculate about its significance in the current situation. Meanwhile, the sheer scale of destruction remains overwhelming—99% of the debris in affected cities has yet to be cleared, leaving many victims still trapped beneath the rubble. The stench of decay from the bodies beneath fuels growing fears of impending disease outbreaks.
Despite the crisis, there is still no state-level rescue operation. The military, rather than organizing relief efforts, is focused on imposing local curfews to prevent looting and obstructing self-help groups from entering disaster zones under the pretext of preventing property abuses.
All these scenarios illustrate that the Tatmadaw regime lacks any intention to safeguard civilians or the nation, yet exhibits great zeal in strengthening its grip on power through the restoration of its own infrastructure. It is also evident that the regime is incapable of ensuring both the security of Myanmar’s people and effective governance or administration.
The question then arises: Will the ceasefire between the Tatmadaw and the resistance forces suffice to safeguard the people of Myanmar? Certainly not. Will international rescue assistance be adequate to shield Myanmar's population from ongoing atrocities and looming security threats? No.
Surely, the people of Myanmar are not meant to be a disposable population in the eyes of the global community—I would like to believe so. However, addressing the crisis through ineffective measures, such as responding to disasters or promoting ceasefires and negotiations with an incapable institution, risks making us feel exactly that—disposable.
What the people of Myanmar truly need is both security and administrative intervention from the UN or the global community. If there is little confidence in either the Tatmadaw or the Resistance groups to bring lasting peace to the region, then the responsibility to protect falls upon you. Security and administrative intervention from the UN or the global community is all we ask. This is the most direct way to ensure that we, the people of Myanmar, are not cast aside from this world.
Ma Thida is a Burmese medical doctor, writer, human rights activist and former prisoner of conscience. In Myanmar, Thida is best known as a leading intellectual, whose books deal with the country’s political situation. Previously the president of PEN Myanmar and a board member of PEN International, she is currently the chair of the Writer in prison committee of PEN International. Her latest book is A-Maze: Myanmar’s Struggle for Democracy, 2011-2023 (London; Singapore: Balestier Press, 2024).